A severe weather outbreak, including the potential for strong tornadoes, is possible Friday from Texas to Missouri, part of a multi-day siege of thunderstorms also with hail, damaging winds and flooding rain in the Plains and Midwest.
Almost on cue as March arrived, we're setting up a stuck weather pattern that will bring multiple days in a row of at least some severe thunderstorms in the nation's midsection through the middle of next week.
(MORE:Beware Of March For Tornadoes, Especially Recently)
Severe Threat Timing
Severe thunderstorms are most possible in the afternoon and evening from parts of northern Texas into the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible.
Cities:Dallas; Ft. Smith, Arkansas; and Springfield, Missouri
Severe thunderstorms are most possible in the afternoon and evening along a feature known as adrylinein parts of western Texas into western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. Hail larger than golf balls, damaging thunderstorm winds and a few tornadoes are possible.
More isolated strong to severe storms are possible as far north as the Missouri Valley of Nebraska, Iowa and southeastern South Dakota.
Cities:Lubbock, Amarillo, Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City, Omaha
Friday may be a more widespread outbreak of severe thunderstorms from Texas to the upper Midwest.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issued a level 3 severe weather forecast in their day 3 outlook,the second-highest level they issue in a day 3 outlook, with the potential for numeroussupercellthunderstorms capable of strong tornadoes, defined as those of at leastEF2 intensityfrom parts of northern Texas into western Missouri in the afternoon and evening.
Large hail, possibly over golf ball size, and destructive thunderstorm winds are also possible.
At least some severe thunderstorms with hail are possible as far north as southern Minnesota into the southern Great Lakes, including Chicagoland, Friday.
Cities:Austin, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines, Chicago
(MORE:SPC Is Issuing New Intensity Forecasts|Classic Ingredients For An Outbreak)
Advertisement
This Weekend And Beyond
The story doesn't end there. Some strong to severe storms are possible Saturday from the Ohio Valley and Appalachians to eastern and central Texas.
A few strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the South Sunday along and near a sagging and stalling frontal boundary.
Additional strong to severe storms are expected early to mid-next week when a strong cold front slices into the central U.S. as a strong upper-level low-pressure system over northern Mexico finally gets kicked into the Plains.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has already highlighted another threat of severe storms Tuesday, including some of the same areas that will be hit later this week in the Plains.
(MAPS:7-Day US Forecast)
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates to this forecast.
In the meantime, make sure you areprepared before severe weather threatensyour area.
Have multiple ways of receiving official National Weather Service watches and warnings, including ways to wake you up at night. Know where the safest place is to take shelter where you live and do so immediately when receiving a warning.
How Much Rain?
Rainfall is expected to be heavy at times with these storms.
Some areas from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys. may pick up over 3 inches of rain, where multiple rounds of thunderstorms occur into next week.
That could lead to flash flooding, particularly in the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains of eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and southwest Missouri.
Soaking A Drought
These parts of the country are very much in need of rainfall. Drought persists across much of the South, and the reason is actually fairly straightforward.
We have been under a La Niña this winter, which causes some significant impacts to our weather.
(MORE:La Niña Is Fading)
A La Niña occurs when trade winds moving from east to west across the equator over the Pacific Ocean ramp up, pushing warm water to the Western Pacific. This forces cooler water to rise to the surface across the eastern region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
This simple change has a drastic impact on the weather around the world and is amplified in the winter.
In a typical La Niña winter, the jet stream is typically forced farther north, leaving the South warmer and drier. That pattern sends most of the precipitation and cooler temperatures to the north.
Rob Shackelfordis a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master's degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.
A severe weather outbreak, including the potential for strong tornadoes, is possible Friday from Texas to Missouri, part ...
