Super Bowl LX is finally here!
Well, it's almost two weeks away — but the matchup is set and a plethora of betting opportunities are already live across the market. Before we dive into some early angles for the side, total and player props, I wanted to take a quick moment to say thank you.
Whether you are a regular reader or a sporadic one, thank you for taking time to read my weekly early best bets article throughout the NFL season. There are an infinite number of ways to spend your time and energy, so devoting some of your week to take in my content truly means a lot to me.
The results were amazing this season: There was a five-week stretch where every single early best Bet hit (13-0 in that span), and personally this was the biggest NFL season I have had in my betting career spanning over a decade. I certainly think there is a correlation between the detailed work needed to produce long-form writing and the success achieved with the plays.
As always, the goal of attacking betting lines early in the week is to close ahead of the market by kickoff. By generating bets with closing line value, we can gain a positive expected value on our bets.
Let's try to do it one more time in a clash between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks in Levi's Stadium on Sunday, Feb. 8.
Odds courtesy ofBetMGM.
New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 46)
The Super Bowl spread opened Seahawks -5 at BetMGM, while other books opened Seahawks -3.5 a little earlier. The traders at BetMGM noticed the early action favoring Seattle, and shaded their number a little further toward the seemingly sharp side. So, despite the line moving down from Seahawks -5 to -4.5 (-115), we should take a full market scope and say Seattle is the early side taking action.
This point can be solidified by mentioning the moneyline shows Seahawks -235 and has not moved once at BetMGM since the open. BetMGM is still pricing the most expensive Seahawks moneyline across the market. They are inviting early New England money, but that will not be coming from my wallet
I definitely want to back Seattle in this game, but there is no rush to lock in -235 as an early-week best bet. I expect this line to remain around Seahawks -4.5, and inevitably BetMGM will show a higher handle on New England and reduce the price on Seattle. If the goal is to close ahead of the market and time the bet and number appropriately, it's a pass for now on the side.
The total: 46
Evident by a full season's worth of content, my breakdowns always start with a comparison between the current betting line and the most recent market moves relative to that bet. The Super Bowl LX total opened at 46.5 and has dropped to 46. The first move in the Super Bowl total was toward the under, and I think this makes a lot of sense.
The Seahawks allowed the fewest opponent points per game this season at 17.1, but the Patriots weren't far behind, allowing only 17.3 PPG. These are two stingy defensives led by defensive-minded head coaches. Whether we look at other broad categories like yards allowed, total sacks and turnovers forced — or advanced metrics like EPA, success rate, or DVOA — these defenses remain elite units.
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The Super Bowl also provides the brightest spotlight, a neutral field creating a de facto away game for both teams, and a two-week prep window for the defensive game plan to be fortified. One direct translation between the spotlight of the game and the moment to the total is the average time until the ball is snapped. The Super Bowl pace slows down and the total number of plays regularly sees a dip.
I think this line will close at 45.5 or lower, so I am taking the under now. We have seen some patterns in betting these playoff games so far, and under action has been the norm. The lone spot I can point to for a game where sharp money came on the over was the AFC championship game, where the final score was 10-7.
Lock it in now, the edge won't be huge because these markets are sharp, so I suggest a half-unit play towards the under.
Bet: Under 46 (-110)
Player props
Kenneth Walker III over 20.5 receiving yards
During Seattle's divisional round win over the San Francisco 49ers, Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL and was lost for the season. The biggest on-field impact of this injury is a heavier reliance on Walker in passing downs.
Charbonnet was regarded as the better pass blocker and would consistently get snaps on clear passing downs. George Holani took over the RB2 role, and a backfield by committee changed to a backfield led by Walker being spelled by Holani.
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Walker played 63% of snaps last week, his highest number this season. In fact, Walker only got 60% or more of the snaps once this entire regular season, but he has done it in back-to-back weeks in the playoffs. The injury to Charbonnet, combined with the decreased emphasis of keeping Walker upright for the most important games, has led to a full unleash of "KW3" on the big stage.
Beyond the increased snaps, the matchup against a Patriots defense that boasts a stout run defense means the Seahawks will rely on Walker in short passing downs. This was my first prop placed, and a no-brainer that I think closes about 3 yards higher.
Rhamondre Stevenson longest rush over 11.5 yards (-110)
The Patriots have made a concerted effort to lean on Stevenson the entire season. Despite fumbling issues in past seasons — and again to start the year — Mike Vrabel never wavered that Stevenson was going to be a focal point of the offense.
Sticking with Stevenson has paid dividends for the Patriots, as he is averaging 4.6 yards per carry this year and profiles as a power back still capable of explosive playmaking. Stevenson got 94% of the snaps for the Patriots against the Broncos and touched the ball 25 times. While I am actively considering the over on his rush attempts at 14.5, the longest rush line offers more value and was an early bet I made.
Going beyond the usage stats that highlight Stevenson having a large role in the Super Bowl, this prop is also a market read. BetMGM offers the best price in market not only by a full yard but also less vig paid. This prop can be found 12.5 (-130) as the consensus price elsewhere, making that factor alone a reason to play it here.