Severe thunderstorms, including the threat for a few tornadoes, are once again in the forecast for parts of the storm-weary Midwest Thursday, the latest round in a March of multiple outbreaks.
Some of the fuel for these severe thunderstorms will be record heat for late March feeding eastward from the Plains. You can read about this extended record March heat wavehere.
Here's what the radar across the Midwest looks like right now. Any tornado watches are red polygons on the map, while any severe thunderstorm watches are yellow polygons:
Thursday's Forecast
What's The Timing?
Severe storms have developed across the Great Lakes and are tracking south.
A few storms may also develop as far west as parts of Kansas, but that's more uncertain.
Through the overnight hours, we will have one or more clusters of severe thunderstorms sagging southward through parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and into western Pennsylvania as a cold front pushes southward. Some heavy rain and thunderstorms will likely continue overnight in the Ohio Valley.
By the Friday morning commute, the rain and storms could stretch from Missouri to Pennsylvania.
What Are The Threats?
- Large hail, possibly up to the size of baseballs
- Wind gusts capable of tree damage and some power outages
- A few tornadoes, possibly up to EF2 intensity
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- Localized flash flooding
Be Prepared
If you're in the area shown above, there are three steps you can take to stay safe in severe weather:
1. Know where to seek safe shelter when severe weather strikesbeforethe storm. If you live in a manufactured home, the safest place is probably either a designated community shelter or the closest building such as a church, industrial building or any building with reinforced concrete.
2. Have multiple ways of receiving official National Weather Service watches and warnings, including from yourphoneandNOAA weather radio. Make sure your devices are full charged in case you lose power and alerts are turned on to wake you up at night.
3. Seek safe shelterimmediatelywhen you receive a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning for your area.
(MORE:14 Severe Weather Tips That Can Save Your Life)
Storm Fatigue
It has been yet another active March for severe weather in the U.S., including parts of the Midwest.
On March 6, four tornadoes struck southern Michigan, including an EF3 in Branch County killing three, an EF2 in Three Rivers and an EF1 tornado that claimed a life in Cass County.
Four days later, a lone supercell spawned five tornadoes across northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana, including the EF3 Kankakee, Illinois, tornado, which killed three.
Then on March 15, another 17 tornadoes were confirmed across central and southern Illinois.
And we just had a flare up of severe storms with hail and winds this pastSundayfrom Illinois to western Pennsylvania.
(RECAP:March Mania: 3 Severe Outbreaks And A Record Snowstorm)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him onBluesky,X (formerly Twitter)andFacebook.